By Daniel Sholler, University of Pennsylvania
For President Barack Obama, navigating the political tempest in the wake of the deepest recession in decades has been a series of wins and losses. But as the Obama administration enters the fall, a host of changes in the agenda, public opinion, and potentially the Congressional composition is introducing difficulties that will surely challenge bipartisanship and policy execution.
With midterm elections quickly approaching, the administration’s task is to restore the public’s faith in Democrats’ fiscal policy. But the left’s foremost argument—that failed Bush administration policies cannot be resurrected following midterm elections—could prove to be its fatal flaw. Opposition leaders and media pundits alike are quick to point out that the Obama administration and current Congress have done little to alter the key talking-point figures indicating economic strength, namely unemployment. With numbers higher than nine percent over the past year, voters are bound to become restless. Smelling blood, Republicans are hammering on the administration for its spending practices and expansion of power. By now, voters are well aware of points made in attention-gaining stunts by activist groups like the Tea Party. Obama stands at the forefront , defending Democrats and urging voters to see through the firestorm created by Republicans and the media.
But despite the growing tide of discontent within the United States, some analysts and politicians are skeptical of the “consensus” drawn on an overthrow in Congress. In a recent interview with CBS, Democratic Congressional Campaign Commission Chairman Chris Van Hollen argued, “We know that Republican colleagues here on Capitol Hill are prematurely popping the champagne bottles.” He continued, “There’s a big disconnect between what’s happening in these districts and many of the political pundits in the Washington area,” adding that, “There’s no room for moderates, there’s no room for pragmatists in the Republican Party.”
Despite Hollen’s comments, early polls show that nearly 55% of voters want to remove incumbent Congressmen from office. However, Hollen sees this as a normal reaction t a tough economy. When it comes to stepping into the booth and voting, though, Hollen believes, “People are going to be very uneasy about going in the direction some of these Tea Party candidates and some of these very right wing candidates want to take the country.”
In analyzing and deciding the direction Democrats should take in defense of the party’s position, leaders must be careful not to play the blame game too heavily. While pointing out that Bush-era policy resulted in an economic mess, voters take accountability into consideration. Instead, Democrats would benefit from stressing that economic recovery—especially recovery from such a deep recession—is often a V-shaped process. Obama’s message of “moving forward” has never been more important to the party’s success.
Questions remain as to how midterm elections will affect Wall Street if voters decide to replace current Congressmen on a large scale. Two schools of thought seem to have emerged on the issue. One is that the markets, under less regulation, would restore balance to the economy. Federal spending would be reduced, restrictions would be loosened, and a healthier economy would emerge. But the idea discussed by Democrats on the campaign trail argues the opposite result. The long-term health of the economy relies on protecting taxpayers from the failures of Wall Street. Allowing de-regulated markets to drive the economy could end in financial disaster (see Robert Sun’s article, Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities in this issue, for an example of some of the “whispers around Wall Street” about another potential bubble burst). Which idea wins out in November could prove to be a major turning point in the nation’s recovery from the “Great Recession.”
